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HomeTennis TipsDaily ATP, Challenger and Grand Slam picks built around price rather than noise. The aim is not to pretend we can call every winner in isolation; it is to find numbers that are too big, handicaps that are a touch loose, and totals that have been shaped by generic assumptions instead of the actual match.
Stake in units (1u = your standard stake). We typically recommend 0.5u-2u per pick.
ML (Moneyline): A straight win bet with no handicap attached.
| Date | Match | Pick | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May | Jodar vs Darderi | Jodar | 2-0 Set Bet | 2.15 |  | 0.75u |
We do not begin with a tip or a hunch. We begin by pricing the match. Surface-specific serve and return data are blended with Elo so the model captures both underlying level and actual conditions, then a point-by-point tennis engine turns that into fair moneyline, handicap and total prices.
Raw probabilities are not enough, especially below the very top tier. We shrink thin samples, weight tournament class properly, and account for things like venue speed, recent workload, rust, form and matchup shape. The point is not to force fake monster edges; it is to stop the fair odds drifting away from tennis reality.
Once our fair odds are set, we compare them to the live market and only move when the gap is worth taking. Sometimes that means moneyline, sometimes games, sometimes totals, and very often it means passing. The proof is not a lucky day; it is whether the number was strong enough to beat the market by the close.
| Date | Match | Pick | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker | Stake | Result | P/L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May | Tirante vs Medvedev | Tirante | ML | 2.50 |  | 0.75u | LOST | -0.75u | |
| 10 May | Arnaldi vs Jodar | Arnaldi | +4.5 Games | 1.80 |  | 1u | LOST | -1.00u | |
| 9 May | Moutet vs Llamas Ruiz | Moutet | ML | 1.73 | | 1u | LOST | -1.00u | |
| 9 May | Machac vs Medvedev | Machac | ML | 2.38 |  | 0.5u | VOID | 0.00u | |
| 8 May | Hanfmann vs Darderi | Darderi | -1.5 Games | 1.75 |  | 0.75u | WON | +0.56u |
