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HomeTennis TipsDaily ATP, Challenger and Grand Slam picks built around price rather than noise. The aim is not to pretend we can call every winner in isolation; it is to find numbers that are too big, handicaps that are a touch loose, and totals that have been shaped by generic assumptions instead of the actual match.
Dashed line is our archive record before public tracking; the solid line is the verified public ledger.
Record cards use the full tracked tennis category record. The recent selections table below is only a browsing sample from the latest 50 settled tennis picks, then filtered by the category tab you choose. The P/L progression shows any pre-tracking baseline as a dashed aggregate summary, then uses settled public ledger rows for the selected tab.
Stake in units (1u = your standard stake). We typically recommend 0.5u-2u per pick.
ML (Moneyline): A straight win bet with no handicap attached.
| Date | Match | Pick | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 Jun | Rinderknech vs Tarvet | Total Games | Over 39.5 | 1.75 |  | 0.75u |
| 29 Jun | Mannarino vs Droguet | Mannarino | -2.5 Games | 1.95 |  | 1u |
| 29 Jun | Virtanen vs Shelton | Total Games | Over 38.5 | 1.73 |  | 1u |
| 29 Jun | Kokkinakis vs Bublik | Total Games | Over 38.5 | 1.80 | | 0.75u |
We do not begin with a tip or a hunch. We begin by pricing the match. Surface-specific serve and return data are blended with Elo so the model captures both underlying level and actual conditions, then a point-by-point tennis engine turns that into fair moneyline, handicap and total prices.
Raw probabilities are not enough, especially below the very top tier. We shrink thin samples, weight tournament class properly, and account for things like venue speed, recent workload, rust, form and matchup shape. The point is not to force fake monster edges; it is to stop the fair odds drifting away from tennis reality.
Once our fair odds are set, we compare them to the live market and only move when the gap is worth taking. Sometimes that means moneyline, sometimes games, sometimes totals, and very often it means passing. The proof is not a lucky day; it is whether the number was strong enough to beat the market by the close.
This is a recent-results window, not the source of truth for the ROI card above. Older bets still count in the category record even when they have rolled out of the latest-50 settled feed.
| Date | Match | Pick | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker | Stake | Result | P/L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 Jun | Budkov Kjaer vs Virtanen | Total Games | Over 36.5 | 1.66 |  | 1u | WON | +0.66u |
| 24 Jun | Mejia vs Heide | Mejia | ML | 2.63 |  | 0.5u | WON | +0.82u |
| 24 Jun | Coria vs Sakellaridis | Total Games | Over 19.5 | 1.80 | | 0.75u | LOST | -0.75u |
| 24 Jun | Hussey vs Halys | Hussey | ML | 2.50 |  | 0.5u | LOST | -0.50u |
| 24 Jun | Samuel vs Tirante | Tirante | ML | 2.43 | | 0.75u | LOST | -0.75u |