Does the Fair Odds Lab include Super Sub in the model price?

No. The model prices the named player only. If a bookmaker offers a Sub On Play On or Super Sub feature on the same market, that is treated as extra bookmaker-dependent protection on top of the displayed fair odds.

Can a replacement player make a goalscorer bet win?

On selected player markets where the bookmaker displays the relevant Sub On Play On or Super Sub icon, the bet may roll to the direct replacement if the named player is substituted. Availability and settlement depend on bookmaker rules.

Il Margine IntelligenceGoalscorer value spots

Goalscorer Fair Odds Lab

Q: Why does the page use Bet365 as the reference price?

Bet365 is used as a simple reference because its anytime-goalscorer markets are widely available and commonly carry Sub On Play On terms. It is not a claim that Bet365 is the top price everywhere. Compare your own available bookies, and if Il Margine publishes an official goalscorer tip we will specify the bookie and odds used.

Where our model price is shorter than the bookies'.

Top value spot

Christoph Baumgartner

Flagged spots

Competitions

Updated

14 May, 09:30 UK

Flagged value spots

Model price vs market price, tracked through the match window.

Pre-match board + locked watch

Sort

Top value spot

SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig | Bundesliga

RasenBallsport LeipzigvsRLRB Leipzig

Sat 16 May 14:30 UK

Model signal

MIDValue signal

Christoph Baumgartner

RasenBallsport Leipzig | Anytime goalscorer

Il Margine

2.11

price gap

+16.1 pp

percentage points vs market

ReferenceBet365

3.20

-10pp0+20pp

Probability gauge

Model 47.3% vs Market 31.2%

Model

47.3%

Market

31.2%

Model scoring chance

47.3%

Recent chance quality

Strong

Lineup status

Projected starter

DoubtfulProjectedConfirmed

Penalty role

Not on penalties

No pens

Reference price: Bet365. This is the single market reference for the Lab, not a claim that it beats every book. Compare your own available bookies before betting.

Compare bookmakers →

Player case

Why the model likes it

Recent chance quality

Recent non-penalty chance volume

Strong

Lineup confidence

DoubtfulProjectedConfirmed

Penalty role

No pens

Opponent profile

Where the matchup bends

Team attacking outlook

Strong

Recent team form

Last 5: +0.63 xGD/90 (2.6 xG for, 2.0 against)

Positive

Opponent defensive weakness

Average

Opponent recent defence

Last 5: 1.6 xGA/game, 13.4 shots conceded/game

Positive

Expected role

Likely full match

Price panel

Il Margine vs Bet365 reference

Metric

Model

ReferenceBet365

Fair odds

2.11

3.20

Implied %

47.3%

31.2%

Probability gap

+16.1 pppercentage points vs market

-10pp0+20pp

Matchup edge

The model price is shorter than the bookmaker's best available price

A large share of the team's chances runs through him

Recent chance quality grades as strong

Recent team form supports the attacking case

Opponent has been allowing chances recently

Reference prices are taken from Bet365 to keep value spots comparable. This does not claim Bet365 beats every book. Prices and team news can move; likely starters update to Confirmed XI when official teams land. After kickoff, flagged spots stay visible as locked watch cards until the match window closes.

Lab hits

The model said value. The player scored.

Recent flagged hits →

Recent value spots the Lab flagged where the named player went on to score. This is not an official goalscorer track record; official settled picks live on the Track Record page.

England - Premier League

Mon 11 May

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Leeds

Leedsvs

Tottenham Hotspur

Fair

2.40

Reference

3.00

Gap

+8.3

✓ScoredLab pick · 11 May

Reference: Bet365 · Lab vs market gap.

France - Ligue 1

Sun 10 May

Lassine Sinayoko

Auxerre

AuxerrevsONOGC Nice

Fair

2.09

Reference

2.75

Gap

+11.5

✓ScoredLab pick · 10 May

Reference: Bet365 · Lab vs market gap.

England - Premier League

Sun 10 May

Zian Flemming

Burnley

Burnleyvs

Aston Villa

Fair

2.60

Reference

3.75

Gap

+11.7

✓ScoredLab pick · 10 May

Reference: Bet365 · Lab vs market gap.

Spain - LaLiga

Sat 09 May

Antonio Martinez

Alaves

Alavesvs

Elche CF

Fair

2.31

Reference

2.88

Gap

+8.6

✓ScoredLab pick · 09 May

Reference: Bet365 · Lab vs market gap.

Italy - Serie A

Fri 08 May

Giovanni Simeone

Torino

Torinovs

Sassuolo Calcio

Fair

2.22

Reference

3.10

Gap

+12.8

✓ScoredLab pick · 08 May

Reference: Bet365 · Lab vs market gap.

Bookmaker edge layer

Why Bet365 Super Sub can add protection

Read explainerv

The model prices the named player only. It does not add extra value for bookmaker promotions such as bet365's Sub On Play On, where eligible player-market bets can roll to the direct replacement if your player is substituted. When that icon is available, the real bet can have more protection than the fair odds shown here.

This page uses Bet365 as the reference price where available because its anytime-goalscorer markets commonly carry Sub On Play On terms. It is not a claim that Bet365 is the top price everywhere. Compare your own available bookies before betting; if we publish an official goalscorer tip, we will specify the bookie and odds used.

Availability depends on the bookmaker, match, market, jurisdiction and account eligibility. Always check the betslip icon and the bookmaker rules before placing a bet.

Model price

Named player only

Reference book

Bet365 for simple comparison

Why it matters

Replacement can keep the bet alive

Goalscorer Fair Odds Lab · Model research, not official picksPowered by Il Margine