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The Il Margine toolkit

Better questions.
Sharper betting tools.

Check a price. Research a player or club. Understand the stake. Free tools that put the numbers behind a bet within reach.

New to the numbers?

One bet, four useful questions.

Follow the worked example →
  1. 01

    Read the odds

    Convert a price into its break-even probability.

  2. 02

    Remove the margin

    Compare all outcomes from the same market.

  3. 03

    Assess the value

    Test the available price against an estimate.

  4. 04

    Choose the stake

    Allow for uncertainty and potential losses.

What do these odds really offer?

Understand the price

Calculator

Fair odds & value

Remove the margin, compare three methods and test the odds you can actually take.

Check a price
Calculator

Double chance & draw no bet

Turn a complete 1X2 market into fair prices, with the draw treated correctly.

Price a football market
Market comparison

Mind the Margin

Compare measured bookmaker margins within the same market and see the sample behind each figure.

Compare bookmakers

What does the evidence say?

Research the selection

Historical research

Return Atlas · Tennis

Explore player returns by season, surface, odds range and favourite or underdog status.

Explore player records
Historical research

Return Atlas · Football

Compare club returns across five domestic leagues. Filter seasons, venue, role and prices.

Explore club records
Model research · beta

Fair Odds Lab

Inspect estimated goalscorer probabilities, lineup assumptions and the available price comparisons.

Open the lab
Evidence directory

Penalty taker intelligence

Find first choices, deputies and the dated evidence behind each club’s hierarchy.

Check a hierarchy

What could the stake cost me?

Understand the risk

Calculator

Kelly staking

Compare stake fractions and see how an overestimated probability changes growth and drawdown.

Test a stake
Simulation

Returns & drawdown

Simulate a range of outcomes using assumptions drawn from our settled record and your chosen stake.

Explore the range

Keep research and results in view.

Historical returns describe a sample. Model probabilities are estimates. Our published selections have their own record, including losing bets.

Published track record →Practical betting guides →Our methodology →