IL MARGINEBack to homeFootball pricing tools
See how including or refunding the draw changes a football price. Start with a complete 1X2 market, then compare an available quote with the calculated benchmark.
From three outcomes to one fair price
Enter home, draw and away prices from the same full-time market. The tool removes its margin before calculating double chance and draw no bet.
Estimated fair decimal odds
Input book overround: 0.00% · Proportional removal
3. Check the price you can take
A draw is a refund: its 27.8% estimated probability contributes zero profit or loss. These are expectations against the selected reference, not a promised return. Match the selection and 90-minute settlement rules. The reference itself can be wrong.
A worked example
At fair probabilities of 50% home, 30% draw and 20% away, home or draw wins 80% of the time. Its fair decimal price is 1 ÷ 0.80 = 1.25.
1X means home or draw. X2 means draw or away. 12 means either team wins; a draw loses.
With those same probabilities, home DNB wins 50%, refunds 30% and loses 20%. Its fair price is (0.50 + 0.20) ÷ 0.50 = 1.40.
At offered odds of 1.50, a £10 stake has expected net profit of 0.50 × £5 − 0.20 × £10 = £0.50. The expected value is +5%, with no profit or loss on a draw.
Using the answer
Use home, draw and away prices for the same match, timestamp and settlement rules. This calculator assumes 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Margin removal estimates probabilities; it cannot prove that the market is right.
A team +0.5 handicap and double chance on that team settle alike, as do a zero handicap and draw no bet under matching rules. Their offered prices can differ. Football Return Atlas uses recorded prices for the markets it shows; these calculated odds do not create an executable historical DNB or double-chance record.