Guides & tools
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From odds to value: four checks before a bet
Read the odds, remove the margin, assess value and choose a stake. One practical path through the numbers, with tools to try.
How to verify a tipster track record
A winning screenshot tells you very little. Here is how to check the complete record, recalculate the returns and find out whether the quoted prices were available.
Closing line value: did you get a good price?
Your bet can lose even when you took a useful price. Learn what CLV measures, how to remove the closing margin and when a comparison is misleading.
Kelly criterion: stake sizing without false certainty
A worked £1,000 example, a smaller-stake comparison and the question that matters most: what happens when your estimated win probability is wrong?
Fair odds and value: what does the price tell you?
Turn a probability into a price, remove a bookmaker’s margin and see why the same selection can be worth considering at one price and poor value at another.
Clay-court tennis betting: make the surface count
A useful clay assessment starts with the right comparison. Separate surface form, sample size and price instead of assuming a player’s recent wins transfer unchanged.
The Il Margine toolkit
Find the right tool for pricing, historical research and staking, with a guided starting point.
Betting calculators
Try returns simulations, Kelly staking, margin removal and a manual closing-line comparison with your own numbers.
Double chance & draw no bet
Estimate football fair prices from a complete 1X2 market, then check an available quote with refunds accounted for.
Return Atlas · Football
Explore historical club returns across five domestic leagues, by season, venue, role and odds range.
Return Atlas
Explore ATP player betting history by season, surface and favourite or underdog status. Compare betting on the player with backing the opponent.
Explore the current research
Use the explanations above to read the evidence, assumptions and dates alongside the numbers.
