Fair price

The Fair Odds Lab starts with a model price. That price is our estimate of what the odds would be if the market had no margin and the player probability matched our inputs. It is not a promise that the player will score or win. It is the price at which the model would stop calling the selection value.

If the model fair price is 2.20, the implied probability is around 45.5 percent. If the available reference price is longer than that, the model sees a possible gap. If the available price is shorter, there is no value signal.

Reference price

The Lab uses a single bookmaker reference so signals stay comparable. That reference is not a best-price claim. It is simply the market number used to compare against the model's fair price at the moment the board updates.

This matters because "best price" language can be misleading. A better price may exist somewhere else, or the reference price may move after the Lab updates. The useful question is narrower: does the model materially disagree with a consistent reference market?

Price gap

The price gap is shown in percentage points. If the model gives a player a 45.7 percent scoring chance and the reference price implies 31.2 percent, the gap is 14.5 percentage points. That does not mean the bet has a 14.5 percent ROI. It means the model probability is 14.5 points higher than the market-implied probability.

Big gaps are useful, but they are not automatically better. A very large gap can mean the model has found something real. It can also mean team news, minutes risk, or market movement has not been handled properly. That is why the Lab favours visible caveats over "lock" type language.

What it is not

The Lab is not an official track record, not a guarantee, and not a place for accumulator hype. It is a research surface: current model prices, current reference prices, and recent examples where the model flagged value and the event later happened.

The settled record belongs on the track record page. The Lab belongs earlier in the process: before the result, while the disagreement between model and market is still visible.