Start with the evidence
Results, playing time, team news and the conditions of the market inform our estimates. Missing or uncertain inputs matter: a probable starter is not a confirmed starter.
IL MARGINEBack to homeThe Edge · Our methodology
How we find the value.
The player matters. The price matters just as much. Our approach connects match research, fair odds and a public record of what happens next.
Try the price · illustrative example
Same player.
Different value.
Move the sliders. See how the price changes the potential return, even when your view of the player stays the same.
An example, not a forecast or a bet recommendation. An inaccurate probability can turn apparent value into a loss.
Model fair odds2.50
Estimated return / £1+10.0p
40% estimated chancevs36.4% needed to break even
Expected return = estimated chance × decimal odds − 1. This graph shows the arithmetic, not historical results.
Estimate a fair price
A model turns the available evidence into an estimated probability. Fair decimal odds are one divided by that probability. This is an estimate, not a certainty about what will happen.
Compare the same bet
Compare the offered price with the model estimate for the same player, event, line and settlement rules. Odds change, so the price and time of a comparison matter as much as the selection.
Record and review
Published selections carry a recorded price and stake. Review settled results, sample size and return on investment together. An encouraging short run is a reason to keep measuring, not proof of an enduring edge.
Market context
Removing margin is a comparison tool.
For a complete set of mutually exclusive outcomes, dividing each implied probability by their sum gives a simple proportional no-margin estimate. It describes the market; it does not establish the true probability or an independent betting edge.
Anytime goalscorer outcomes overlap: several players can score. Adding all their implied probabilities and normalising them as if only one player could win is not a valid way to remove the margin.
Compare margin-removal methods in the calculator →Two-outcome illustration
1.90 / 1.90
Implied total 105.26% · overround 5.26%
Proportional no-margin estimate2.00 / 2.00
50% each after removing margin. This is the market’s estimate, not our player model.
Using the analysis
Check the current price.Public results use the recorded odds. A lower price available later can remove the estimated value.
Keep stakes in perspective.A unit is a way of recording stake size, not a promise of return. The calculator lets you explore different assumptions.
Separate research from results.Model comparisons and selected winning highlights are not the same as a complete betting record.