Could you have followed the bets?
Start with a practical question: what could a follower actually have placed before the event? Each selection should identify the fixture, market, line, odds, bookmaker, stake and publication time. A player name with a winning slip attached afterwards is not enough.
A timestamp printed on a website can be edited. Stronger evidence comes from an independently recorded pre-event post, a third-party proofing service, or an audit trail that retains changes. A public ledger is useful, but public and independently verified are different claims.
- Pick five past selections
Include winners and losers from different dates. Locate their original pre-event posts, not just the settled results.
- Compare the details
Check the published line, odds and stake against the ledger. Corrections should be visible and explained.
- Check price availability
A briefly available maximum price or a restricted promotional boost may not represent what most followers could obtain.
Recalculate profit and ROI yourself
ROI here means profit divided by total amount staked. It is not the percentage growth of a starting bank. At decimal odds, a winning £10 bet at 2.50 returns £25 in total: £15 profit plus the £10 stake. A losing £10 bet loses £10.
Read the settlement rules. Voids, half-wins, half-losses, dead heats and cash-outs can change both profit and the turnover denominator. Use the same treatment as the published record, and ask for clarification where it is missing.
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
| Measure | Calculation | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Profit | Returns − stakes | Money or units won after losses |
| ROI | Profit ÷ turnover × 100 | Return on the amount repeatedly staked |
| Bank growth | Profit ÷ starting bank × 100 | Change relative to an initial bankroll |
In this example a £500 starting bank grows by 16%, while ROI remains 8%. Calling both figures ROI would double the apparent performance.
Look beyond the best month
There is no magic number of bets that proves skill. A record of 500 short-priced bets behaves differently from 500 longshots. Several bets on the same player or match are also related, so the count can overstate how many independent opportunities were tested.
Look at the complete timeline, then separate sports, markets and odds ranges. Ask whether a profitable total depends on a single unusually large winner. Compare the stated variable-stake record with a level-stake version: both can be valid, but they answer different questions.
Historical simulations should be labelled separately from tips published in advance. A strategy selected because it looked best among hundreds of backtests needs new, unseen results before its performance is persuasive.
- Include every month
A rolling last-30-days graphic is useful only if the older results remain accessible.
- Include every selection
Do not let losing markets disappear from the headline after they stop being promoted.
- Account for costs
Subtract subscription charges, relevant commission and any consistent difference between published and obtainable odds.
Check the price quality and the rough stretches
Closing-line value compares the taken price with a specified market shortly before the start. Repeatedly beating a credible, margin-adjusted close is useful evidence about pricing. It cannot certify a tipster by itself: the benchmark may be weak, timestamps may be wrong, and the tracked subset may exclude awkward bets.
Drawdown is the fall from a previous bankroll peak to a later low. It answers a question the final profit does not: how much money would a follower have seen disappear along the way? Ask whether the graph uses the actual sequence of settled bets or a simulation.
Illustrative sequence, not Il Margine results. The final £80 profit does not show the £300 fall along the way.
A five-minute decision checklist
- Can I inspect the original tips?
Prefer an auditable history over unverified screenshots or a badge with no explanation.
- Can I reproduce the headline?
The stakes, settlement rules and turnover should produce the stated profit and ROI.
- Can I obtain comparable prices?
Check your own bookmakers, limits and the time between publication and your bet.
- Can I see the full risk?
Read losing months, drawdown, market splits and the number of bets behind each claim.
- What remains unverified?
Treat missing information as missing. Do not replace it with an assumption that the service is either brilliant or dishonest.
A good historical record supports a judgement about past performance. It does not promise your next month will be profitable.