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Premier LeaguePlayer props preview18 MayIndependent football player prop tips for Arsenal vs Burnley on 18 May 2026 (Premier League). The published card covers Trossard - Over 2.5 Shots; Pires - Over 1.5 Fouls. Compare the recorded odds and stakes below, read any published analysis, and check each result after settlement.
Completed betting record: these selections have been settled. For upcoming matches, use the current picks page.
Tracked ledger
At decimal odds of 1.98, the break-even win rate is 50.5% among bets that win or lose. This is calculated from the price, not our predicted chance. Voids return the stake; part-win or part-loss markets need a different calculation.
At decimal odds of 2.90, the break-even win rate is 34.5% among bets that win or lose. This is calculated from the price, not our predicted chance. Voids return the stake; part-win or part-loss markets need a different calculation.
Selected football player-prop picks, sent when we post them with the odds, stake and a link to the full pick. Tennis picks and the full public record stay on the site.
Recorded betting view
Il Margine logged 2 selections for Arsenal vs Burnley. The ledger preserves the original pick, price, stake and bookmaker.
This page updates the same public record after settlement. Posted odds are not replaced with later market prices.
A value bet needs a credible estimate of its chance of winning that is higher than the price implies. The mathematical check is probability × decimal odds − 1: a positive number indicates estimated value for a win-or-lose bet. A selection is not guaranteed to win, and shorter odds do not necessarily mean better value.
These are the prices recorded when the picks were published, not a live odds feed. A lower price can remove an edge. Where no fair probability is published, the recorded price alone cannot establish the size of an advantage. Judge the approach over the full record, including losses and the number of settled bets.
Transparent update
2 of 2 selections settled.
